The Post Covid era- what next for Football?

David Booth is a Global Media Executive who likes to blog, strategise and talk about Sports & Entertainment content.

As sports governing bodies, clubs and associations grapple with the task of maintaining fan interest in their respective sports and readdressing reduced income streams as direct fan participation is removed from the live event experience for the unforeseeable future, we are seeing various new explorations in recreating the fan experience.

Within in the confines of sport, the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic has seen the acceleration and experimentation of new concepts- from remote sports production, pitch-side reporting replaced by studio based commentary, fan chants synced to real-time play courtesy of EA Sports, where the viewing audience can vote on the chant of choice- creating a two-way experience, Augmented Reality with innovative concepts being trialled, to Zoom walls and Fan-zones in a social viewing experience. These are all unique ways to compensate for the non participation of fans at the live event in an attempt to maintain a semblance of normality and maintain fan interest. As consumer behaviour changes, many of these concepts will become integrated into the new viewing experience going forward. As all professional sports come to terms with the reality of zero or reduced fan attendance for the next year or so, the economic impact on sports business models in the short to medium term may well have profound effects which reverberate on many levels, from the future value of live sports rights, to whatever the next transfer window will be in elite football and how sports seek to survive and adapt in the interim.

Regarding the world of football, the economic impact of league shutdowns and limitations on match day attendance will slow the march towards player transfers costing in the region of £200+ Million. In the 2019 summer transfer window, European football clubs spent £5.25 Billion, continuing the upward trend of player transfer hyperinflation. If there are any significant transfers dealings this year, I imagine these will be tactical and most likely player loans as many clubs can ill afford the outright cost of transfers fees on top of salaries in this period of restricted income. This temporarily impairs the spending of rival clubs across Europe and also reduces player-agent bargaining power. For coaches this is a time to step up and shine- make a mark and nurture the younger talent within the club's books. Lets visit with a good dose of nostalgia young players being given a chance similar to 'the Class of 92' under Ferguson at Man United (although even in the end Ferguson succumbed to acquiring the best at whatever the cost in pursuit of silverware).

Right now is an opportune moment to lay the foundations for corrective change. Regardless of talent and ability, the on-going inflated player acquisition costs and ever rising salaries at the elite end no longer make sense in this new environment. At the other end of the pyramid, local football clubs are struggling to survive, as their main source of revenue- match day generated income is now non existent. The huge exposure to risk is evident as Deloittes have recently reported that at the elite end, Premier League clubs may well lose up to £1Billion in revenue from the loss of broadcast and match day revenue (Deloitte- Home Truth Annual Review of Football Finance 2020). They state that wages to revenue ratio has increased to 61% in 2018/19 and Premier League clubs have spent an extra £306m on wages compared to the previous year. Clubs such as Tottenham Hotspur run a tight ship with salaries being 39% of revenue, this being the case a lot of clubs must be spending significant proportions of their revenue on players costs.

We are not out of the woods yet with the pandemic and further huge knock on effects to business and society will occur. The sporting calendar may further be subjected to postponements or delays if there is a second wave of the pandemic. With the big unknown of not knowing how long this situation of limiting sports day attendance will last for, there is genuine fear that volatile revenue streams and reduced revenue may result in major triage to repair the balance sheets and worse case scenario several clubs going into receivership across the leagues. Money from television media in the form of Pay-TV satellite and cable has propped up sport, in particular elite football for over 30 years. As the heavy economic fallout continues, a new financial model needs to be examined, as well as strategic long term thinking on where does football go next in the 21st Century.

This being the case, amongst the disarray, there is an opportunity to pause, reflect and rethink. As put forward by Andre Villas-Boas (Football Manager at Ligue 1 club Marseille), scheduling seasons differently on a temporary basis might make sense as football aligns itself for the Fifa World Cup to be held in Qatar in December 2022. It raises the bigger question, does European football move to the Brazilian schedule and become a spring to early autumn season? This may well benefit viewership and match day attendance. There are many questions to debate from the current financial impact, to how does grass roots development continue?, what next for the women's game as momentum is halted in this period?, how to govern elite sport in a world where States or wealthy individuals are prepared to acquire a football club or the rights to a global sports event as sport becomes a soft power resource?

The 2020 Coronavirus pandemic may well be that pivotal event that creates a new beginning for all of us. Will this be a year where it is finally accepted that change is needed on many fronts in football? Only time will tell as we embrace a new normal in sport, whatever that turns out to be. I dearly hope football is back with all its pomp and glory but an element of common sense prevails for long term sustainability and time is set aside to discuss widely, strategise and look to reinvent the sport, so that it is sustainable on many levels in the 21st century.

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